数据|2020美国总统大选将如何影响市场及投保环境?

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2020美国总统大选计票迟迟不出结果,喧嚣的各类媒体不断输出更多的声音,市场也因此呈现的剧烈波动… 各种各样的因素,都在推波助澜的放大着我们每一个人的情绪。

固然这些因素会对不同类型的“现金值”人寿保单资产产生影响,但通过对过去百年数据的统计,我们可以得出一些参考,来帮助获得内心的平静。

Q:如果一个党派入主白宫,又同时控制国会两院,这种情况下,市场会不会上涨?

随着美国总统大选的计票持续推进,民主党总统候选人拜登获胜的几率进一步增加。截止目前,民主党又在众议院赢得212个席位,参议院赢得48个席位,同时,美国股市出现了新一轮的上涨反弹。

在这种一党独大的情况下,市场表现会不会更好?

Stock market performance in presidency - 1

根据过去50年的数据显示,在席位及权力平衡的美国政府执政期间,美国道琼斯工业指数的平均回报率为9%,高于一党控制的政府执政情况(回报率为7.4%)。

Q:经济和股市在一党统领下会不会表现得更好?

目前没有明确的证据和任何科学手段来证明这一点,哪一个党派执政下,经济表现会更好,也没有一个固定的答案,一党服务的情况下,市场效率就会更高。

“covid-19-news”

Stock market performance in presidency - 2

自1987年的数据统计显示,在民主党总统的服务下,平均的年化股市回报率是9.3%在共和党总统的服务下,平均的年化股市回报率是6.6%

(>>>推荐阅读: 历任美国总统评测,谁对退休金账户和人寿保单资产更有利?

如果你能轻松对待美国大选…

对于理性的现代公民来说,审慎地对待社交媒体,规避和理性对待各类社会新闻,政治承诺和话题炒作引起的信息污染,显得至关重要。

在消耗我们的精力,我们最宝贵的财富——时间,也随之逝去。

根据您的目标,情况和风险承受能力,制定计划,并定期进行监控。在震荡的市场中,能提供良好风险管理能力的金融保险产品,能有效帮助我们对抗因市场波动引起的情绪起伏,获得心里的平静。

如果你依然感到紧张…

美国总统大选活动会在我们生活中产生无穷无尽的“噪音”,输出大量的“不确定性”和信息要处理。 但是从中长期回望,这段历史时期几乎不会影响您的理财目标和保障策略。

依靠专业知识和客观性,无论美国总统大选后发生了什么情况,专业的金融类人寿保险经纪都可以帮助您从所有角度着眼并实施适合自己的投保策略,用风险管理手段消除财务上的紧张感。

文章总结

在盐湖城举行的副总统辩论上,主持人最后提出的一个问题,来自一位8年级初中学生:

“当我看新闻的时候,我看到的只是民主党和共和党之间的争论。当我看新闻的时候,我看到的是公民与公民的斗争。当我看新闻的时候,我只看到两个来自对立党派的候选人试图互相拆台。如果我们的领导人相处不好,公民应该如何相处?”

我们引用副总统彭斯的回答,来结束本文,也希望能帮助我们的读者获取内心的平静。

“Brecklin, it’s a wonderful question. And let me just commend you for taking an interest in public life. I started following the news when I was very young. And in America, we believe in a free and open exchange of debate. And we celebrate that. It’s how we’ve created literally the freest and most prosperous nation in the history of the world. I would tell you that, don’t assume that what you’re seeing on your local news networks is synonymous with the American people.

“I look at the relationship between Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, the late justice who we just lost from the Supreme Court, and the late Justice Antonin Scalia. They were on polar opposites on the Supreme Court of the United States. One very liberal one, very conservative. But what’s been learned since her passing was the two of them and their families were the very closest of friends. Here in America, we can disagree. We can debate vigorously as Senator Harris and I have on this stage tonight. But when the debate is over, we come together as Americans. And that’s what people do, in big cities and small towns all across this country. So I just want to encourage you, Brecklin. I want to tell you that we’re going to work every day to have government as good as our people, and the American people each and every day. Love a good debate. We love a good argument. But we always come together and are always there for one another in times of need. And we’ve especially learned that through the difficulties of this year.”

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2020美国大选副总统辩论录像链接:[点击观看]

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